key takeaways
- Polls suggest that the LDP and Kōmeitō could see the ruling coalition’s majority fall to at or near an absolute majority.
- The best-case scenario could still leave Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru essentially as a caretaker, constrained by intra-party rivals – who would have leverage in a slender majority – from acting decisively.
- Ishiba might not be replaced immediately even if the ruling coalition falls short, but it will be difficult to govern, suggesting a new era of political uncertainty.
Japan Foresight 