The ruling coalition has been humbled – what happens next?

key takeaways

• The LDP and Kōmeitō failed to secure an absolute majority for the first time since 2009, though the LDP remains the largest party in the lower house.
• The LDP is likely to stay in power – and Ishiba Shigeru may even stay on as prime minister – but the process of assembling a working majority will not be easy.
• The next Japanese government is likely to be weaker, less energetic, and more inward-looking than the post-2012 LDP-Kōmeitō governments, with palpable policy consequences.