Navigating a volatile political landscape

With significant questions about the likelihood of a no-confidence motion against the Ishiba government and double elections for the upper and lower house, Japanese politics is in an especially fluid moment.
To navigate possible scenarios over the next two months, JAPAN FORESIGHT has developed a decision tree to identify the pathways to — and probabilities of — different outcomes.
For the moment, the most likely outcome remains Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru leading the ruling coalition into upper house elections, with no double election, but this situation could change abruptly.