key takeaways
- Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru will escape from the ordinary session of the Diet without facing a no-confidence motion and will avoid calling a double election.
- Nevertheless, the upper house campaign is critical for Ishiba, since losing the ruling coalition’s majority would be difficult for the prime minister to survive.
- He appears to have the upper hand heading into the campaign, with public opinion shifting in his favor and the opposition parties struggling to deliver an effective message to the public — but the situation remains fluid.
Japan Foresight 