key takeaways
- While the upper house elections on 20 July will determine whether Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru will remain in office, the post-election landscape will be highly fluid regardless of the outcome of the elections.
- It is all but certain that an electoral defeat will result in Ishiba’s resignation, pointing to an early election as his successor seeks a stable parliamentary majority.
- Even if the ruling coalition retains an upper house majority, Ishiba will still have to navigate without a lower house majority, and disagreements over a supplemental budget could also lead to a snap election.
Japan Foresight 