key takeaways
- The campaign for Japan’s 20 July House of Councillors elections began on Thursday, 3 July.
- The critical question is whether the Ishiba government can retain its control of the upper house; if the ruling coalition falls short of a majority, political instability is likely.
- The campaign will turn on the ruling coalition’s reversing its 2024 losses, the ability of opposition parties to cooperate, and the inclination of voters to turn out despite muted enthusiasm for both ruling and opposition parties.
Japan Foresight 