key takeaways
- Although they outperformed some of the most pessimistic forecasts, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Kōmeitō fell several seats short of an upper house majority.
- The electoral defeat immediately puts Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru in jeopardy, as his rivals in the LDP will look for the prime minister to take responsibility for the second straight electoral defeat under his leadership.
- The LDP faces both governing and political crises, and will look for a new leader who can overcome both, most likely by working with an additional coalition partner.
- The most significant story in the election may be the ongoing fragmentation of the political system, as new anti-establishment parties have weakened the established parties but are not yet strong enough to wield power on their own.
Japan Foresight 