key takeaways
- As the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) weighs whether to hold an early leadership election, the likelihood of Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru surviving this political crisis has increased, though his survival is not guaranteed.
- Indeed, the most probable outcome is the continuation of the status quo, in which the Ishiba government relies on informal cooperation with opposition parties to govern – though its cooperation may increasingly be with the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP).
- That said, Ishiba’s position is still vulnerable as anti-Ishiba forces seek to drive him from office.
Japan Foresight 