key takeaways
- The House of Representatives was dissolved on Friday, 23 January, starting the countdown to the start of the campaign on 27 January and the general election on 8 February.
- Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae and the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) are projecting confidence – the latter raised its victory line to an absolute majority of its own – but there are five major sources of uncertainty that make an overwhelming victory for Takaichi a relatively unlikely outcome.
- These factors include turnout; the impact of the LDP’s loss of Kōmeitō’s support; competition between the LDP and conservative parties for the youth vote; a chaotic landscape in Osaka; and the effects of a short campaign.
Japan Foresight 