key takeaways
- The first round of forecasts from pollsters have converged around a prediction that the LDP could win enough seats to retake an independent majority in the House of Representatives.
- While there are many close races that could determine how large a victory the government wins, the opposition Centrist Reform Alliance (CRA) appears to be struggling to coalesce, while Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae’s popularity appears to be fending off conservative challengers to the LDP.
- The size of the LDP’s victory will have implications for the LDP’s partnership with Ishin no Kai, as the prime minister considers how to convert her victory into control of the upper house and deliver some quick policy wins.
Japan Foresight 