Despite dovish squawks, fiscal hawks hold the upper hand

key takeaways
  • After resisting pressure to campaign on a stimulus package and a consumption tax cut, Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has stepped up his rhetoric on the need for fiscal consolidation.
  • While rising Japanese government bond yields may reflect market concerns about more lavish spending, fiscal doves may have less influence than meets the eye.
  • The Ishiba government is preparing to pursue gradual fiscal consolidation through the FY2026 budgetary process.

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