key takeaways
- Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae appears to have decided in favor of an early election, setting the stage for a February contest.
- While Takaichi remains popular, the election could still be closely contested – not least because the threat has pushed opposition parties together and sharpened their rhetoric about the prime minister.
- The lack of an upper house majority and the government’s worsening standoff with markets over Takaichi’s fiscal policies suggest that the election could be less decisive than she hopes.